A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
